I’m still watching Invest 93L very closely. Right now, it’s a broad area of low pressure (large low) that does not have a well-defined center and has disorganized thunderstorms associated with it. It needs that center to form and have more organized thunderstorms for it to become a tropical system. It is moving north and will be crossing over the Yucatán Peninsula into the Southern Gulf tonight into Monday.
Then once it’s in the Gulf, it will be in a somewhat favorable area for some development. There is some wind shear present, so that will prevent it from becoming very organized. However, it’s possible it could become a tropical or subtropical depression or storm by Tuesday.
The forecast models are not in agreement as to where this system may track. They are still spread from Central Texas to the Florida Panhandle. The latest GFS model shows it headed toward Louisiana, but it also had it going to Mobile, AL and Florida – you can see the uncertainty! The Euro has it going toward South Texas and North Mexico.
Once there is a closed circulation, then the models will have a better idea on where it may track. Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system on Monday. They will also be able to get some great data about the atmosphere around the low and that data goes into the models too.
Some impacts for Louisiana we can plan for, no matter where it tracks, would be heavy rain and very high tides this week. Stayed tuned to my blog and Facebook updates. Keep it tuned also to WWL-TV all week for more information! – Dave