I’m continuing to watch the evolution of Invest 93L today. It has now entered the Southern Gulf of Mexico and is expected to become better organized later today. Right now it is fighting some dry air and wind shear. That is causing the thunderstorms to be displaced to the east of the center of the large circulation. Unfortunately, the cold front that is moving through our area today will miss it, so it will not sweep this system to the northeast like we thought it would last week. Instead, the system is expected to form into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm Tuesday into Wednesday.
At this time, the forecast models are ALL OVER THE PLACE. This is due to the fact that there isn’t a closed area of low pressure yet with the system. Once there is a closed low, which could happen today or Tuesday, the models are able to figure out its track better. Right now, the models are spread from a possible landfall between South Texas to the Alabama Coast. This morning, our Precisioncast model shows the low forming into a tropical depression or storm and tracking west toward Brownsville to Corpus Christi, TX. The GFS (American) Model shows the low tracking toward Morgan City, LA as a weak tropical system. Lastly, the Euro Model shows it tracking west toward Brownsville, Texas and then moving north along the Texas Coast. Needless to say, the models are NOT in agreement.
One thing they do agree on is that while this is not expected to be a strong tropical system, it WILL produce heavy rains, gusty winds and very high tides. Rain totals could be around 4-8+ inches for us depending on where the system tracks. If it moves west of us, we will see all the rain wrap around the low right over us. If it goes east of us, we will see much less rain. At this point, I would plan for rain. We will also see storm tide levels of 2-4 feet for east facing shores of Louisiana and the MS Coast. Lastly, we will see sustained winds around 15-25 mph with higher gusts.
A lot still has to happen before this system becomes tropical or subtropical, but it could happen today or tomorrow. Stay weather aware and be prepared NOW before we feel the impacts from it. Make sure drainage ditches and basins are clear of debris and free flowing. Also, make sure you have a plan in place to act on if and when any flash flood or river flood warnings are issued for your location. Lastly, make sure you stay tuned to my updates here, on Facebook, Twitter and on WWL-TV.